While it is early, have no doubt that there are many issues and factors that are being weighed by all the candidates and President Obama for the 2012 Presidential election. As we enter further into the 2012 election cycle more of these factors will come to bear, and the television ads will flood the airwaves.
As in every election cycle, we at M V Consulting take NO position on any of the candidates or the President. Our election coverage is as unbiased as we can be. We will provide facts, coverage, speeches, and other relevant information in full context so that our readers can make an informed decision in the election booth. Whatever the choice, our ONLY goal is for voters to get out and vote.
One of the immediate things that will be critical for the 2012 election will be the changes in electoral votes due to the Census. Several states have lost votes due to decreases in population, while others have gained. This does change the strategies and some states that were strongholds have weakened.
For Democrats and President Obama – several key States have lost electoral votes and can be a factor. Looking at the electoral math in 2008 compared to what it weill be in 2012 we get the following:
President Obama won 29 states for 365 elctoral votes:
California, Colorado, Conneticutt, DC, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachuecetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampsire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Since that time, New York lost 2 votes. Illinois, Michigan, Massachuesetts, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have all lost 1 vote each. Washington gained one, for a net of 6 votes lost.
Critical swing states of Florida and Nevada gained 2 and 1 votes respectively. Iowa and Missouri lost 1 vote, Ohio lost 2.
Looking forward based on the latest Real Clear Politics approval average of 46.6%, President Obama is unlikely to keep:
Florida – 45.8%
Indiana – 43.9%
Iowa – 47.5%
Nevada – 47%
New Hampshire – 41.3%
North Carolina – 46.9%
Ohio – 47.4%
Oregon – 47.8%
Pennsylvania – 46.3%
Virginia – 46.6%
We base this in part on the Rassmuessen State by State approval, taking the lowest average and below average States away from President Obama.
The net result is 18 states with a total of 220 electoral votes. That leaves President Obama short of the 270 needed to win by 50 electoral votes.
Often it is believed that an approval rating below 50% for a sitting President bodes ill for his chances in that state. Added to this is the level of unemployment, averaging 8.92% in these 11 states:
Florida – 11.5%
Indiana – 8.8%
Iowa – 6.1%
Nevada – 13.6%
New Hampshire – 5.4%
North Carolina – 9.7%
Ohio – 9.2%
Oregon – 10.2%
Pennsylvania – 7.9%
Virginia – 6.4%
The combination sets a clear path that the President and Democrats must take if they are to keep the Presidency. Either the Stimulus and the Health Care Reform must immediately improve the household income, quality of life, job growth, and/or decrease the number of mortgage foreclosures OR massive funds must be used to advertise and campaign in these States. At the very least in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana in that order of importence. No less than 3 of these states must be won in order to gain the Presidency.
Wild cards to this outlook are of course out there. There is the potential defection of African Americans from President Obama’s support base, which has been eroding. There is the possibility of unemployment dipping below 8% by the election – without the cause being the loss of unemployment checks to those still unemployed. There is the potential that through revision or removal the Health Care Reform is improved significantly – and President Obama is seen as the cause of these changes.
There is the potential end of military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya – with each cessation leading to a net decrease in activity by Al Quida and other radical terrorist groups. There is the potential for stabilization in the Middle East – again requiring President Obama being attributed with the cause of the stability.
Given the current political environment, with an imminent shutdown of the Government looming, France leading the operations against Libya, turmoil in the Middle East and an international policy that is hesitant to action, and forecasts of continued economic turmoil persisting for years if not a decade, we believe that the abovementioned outlook is most likely.
Lastly, the most critical factor will be who leads the GOP ticket and if there is any significant 3rd Party candidtate (such as a Tea Party candidate) involved in the race. At this time there is no way to quantify this last factor.
Thus we believe that the 2012 Presidential election will be one in which soundbite television ads and out-of-context quotes will likely be rampant. This means that for voters to make sounds decisions it is vital actual facts, voting records, and results be known before voting. Only then will an informed decision be possible.
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