Now this is a race!

It has been long assumed that New York is a Democrat stronghold. One of the most secure seats has been the 22nd Congressional district – held for 18 years by Representative Maurice Hinchey. Part of that security is the geryymandered nature of the district itself. But even with that, things can change.

The NY 22nd Congressional district streches across 8 counties and is about the size of Connetticut. It has outcroppings at points to include high density, high Democrat, cities for no apparent reason other to sway votes. It reaches from just north of New York City, out to Ithaca through New York’s Southern Tier. This combination of facts has made the 22nd Congressional district a cozy home, barely noticed by Democrats until this year.

This year, there is no such thing as a safe haven for Democrats up for re-election. Previously we reported that challenger George Phillips was within 7% of the incumbent, a race of 43 – 36. But the news of that poll is a month old. It did not include endorsements from Ron Lauder and Mayor Ed Koch (a staunch Democrat himself). It also failed to cover the attack by Rep. Hinchey on a member of the press, his denial (on video by YNN) that he told the press to shut up (also on video by YNN) when asking about a controversial deal that Hinchey is alleged to be part of, and his campaign rejection of the press when President Clinton came to town.

In fact the old poll did not include what Democrats must have realized, that Rep. maurice hinchey is in significant trouble. Why else would president Clinton fly from Kentucky to speak on behalf of a candidate that he has not spoken to or mentioned in 10 years? All of these things led the American Crossroads 527 to place a reported $300,000 in political ads in the 22nd Congressional race (527’s are political organizations that have no contact with candidates, but can place ads about issues and the race itself. Both Democrats and Republicans have them.)

So what does the most recent poll – from October 19th, by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, state?

If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were George Phillips, Republican, or Maurice Hinchey, Democrat?

Maurice Hinchey …………………………………………………………… 43.2%

George Phillips ……………………………………………………………… 43.2%

The confidence on this poll is stated to be “a margin of error of +/‐ 2.89% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.”

Well if this does not answer the question of why President Clinton was in Binghamton, no other reason will.

This is now a race to the finish. George Phillips will be adding former Gov. George Pataki to his list of endorsements. Perhaps appointed Gov. Paterson (who is leaving the office after scandal) will endorse Rep. Hinchey? Or maybe former Gov. Spitzer? To be fair, Rep. Hinchey has been endorsed by the Humane Society Legislative Fund, and the Sierra Club – his official website mentions no endorsements.

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About the Author

Michael Vass
Born in 1968, a political commentator for over a decade. Has traveled the U.S. and lived in Moscow and Tsblisi, A former stockbroker and 2014 Congressional candidate. Passionate about politics with emphasis on 1st and 2nd Amendments.

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