More polls on the New York mid-term election outlook

As the mid-term elections approach, and now that we have reached the post-Labor Day political rush, polls are ever more telling on what we can expect to see in November. Overall the nation is looking to make a definite change in who holds power in Washington D.C. Democrats and incumbents are out, with Republicans and new faces coming in. Even in a Democrat stronghold like New York this seems to be true.

One of the biggest examples of the shift from Democrats can be seen in the recent results on the race for the New York 22nd Congressional district. Democrat Maurice Hinchey has held this seat for years (not counting the re-districting process that has altered the shape and electoral bias of the district). Rep. Hinchey has evaded the public on significant issues like the Health Care Reform, the Obama Stimulus, the 9/11 mosque, DOJ policy, even the recent declaration against Native American tibes in New York (as proposed by Gov. Patterson and Mayor Bloomberg). Rep. Hinchey has avoided speaking to the press on almost any question, but eager to use the press to highlight soundbites and events that can further his re-election campaign. This has been documented several times here.

In March of 2010, Rep. Hinchey held a 54% – 29% lead on his rival Republican candidate George Phillips. But as the year continued, the public has grown more weary of waiting for the promised positive effects of the Obama Administration and Democrats. Jobs are as scarce, if not more, than since the Stimulus was passed. The national debt is trillions higher – and set to continue growing by trillions for the Obama Presidency (according to the Administration’s statements). Healthcare costs have risen dramatically, with further increases on the horizon. Plus taxes for people of all economic status are increasing on every front.

Rep. Hinchey has maintained a blind faith to his political party throughout this. He has ignored the voters and public. The result has been that he now stands at 44% to George Phillips 37%. Rep. Hinchey is below 50% on his re-election bid even though 96% of those polled recognize his name. Which means that voters are familiar with Rep. Hinchey – seeing him as an entrenched incumbent, that supports Party polotics over his constituents needs, and part of the problems instead of the solution. A combiniation that many incumbents and Democrats are facing across the country.

“Only 25% declared themselves likely to support someone already involved in Washington politics, while 46% said “less likely.”

Given this outlook, given the 18% increase for George Phillips in only 5 months, given that across New York State polls have shown the public do not want to re-elect incumbents (67% feel the State is on the wrong track – Sept Siena Poll), the mid-term elections look to be a sea of change.

About the Author

Michael Vass
Born in 1968, a political commentator for over a decade. Has traveled the U.S. and lived in Moscow and Tsblisi, A former stockbroker and 2014 Congressional candidate. Passionate about politics with emphasis on 1st and 2nd Amendments.

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