Over the years that I spent as a stockbroker I learned that you should never get so tunnel-visioned as to only see one aspect of a market. I’ve known many brokers that solely focused on technology, or banks, and so on. When their sector was in trouble, they and their clients had little safe haven until the market turned. Few things are as troubling as being over-weighted in a sector the market hates.

Conversely I have known brokers that were able to see opportunities driving down the L.I.E. (Long Island Expressway) – he noted that over a couple of months a bank with little exposure in the northeast was suddenly increasing it’s advertising and deduced they were poised to start making mergers and enter that market and was right. I have even seen brokers look at an industry and see the future potential. Such as with breakthroughs with various drugs, or the growth of the internet back in the early days of AOL.

I even saw the potential of satellite radio back when Sirius Radio (then called CD Radio) first got its FCC license for the frequency they use. [I did not get the pricing exactly correct at various points in the time I recommended that stock, I have to be honest.]

So in that vain of thought I occasionally watch what is happening across the pond and the globe, even though I am no longer a broker. And I am noticing that over in London there is an interesting wave of commonality that is unusual to me.

Lately there have been a lot of similarity in the British and American markets, which is beyond the usual trend. Of course there are many reasons for this. The similarity in our systems of government, the shared culture and past. The good will between the nations and the numerous multi-national companies that we share.

Now with all this said I have to wonder what this synchronism of market activity will mean when weighed against the advance of the Euro and the European Union? Will the effects of higher oil prices, and lower levels of alternative fuel sources trigger an adverse effect on London, and thus New York? Will the ripple effect of high transportations costs for British and American goods hasten the decline of the Dollar and Pound? And if this is correct, how long before such an effect is seen in London and then Wall Street?

So I suggest that for those looking for the next phase of this current market cycle here in the U.S. the place to look may not be in the American markets. Look across the pond to our cultural cousins and look at the big picture. Who knows what you might glimpse.

Labels: European Union, London, New York, satellite radio, Sirius Radio, stockbroker, Wall Street

From time to time I am asked questions about the stock market, investing, owning a business, and other questions relating to generating and maintaining wealth. Most often the question for those without a high personal net worth is how to create wealth, and for those already on the path how to accelerate their growth. These are not simple questions and each has several different answers. There is no single blueprint that leads to wealth or a higher personal net worth.

Perhaps one thing I’ve noted is that anyone can create a net worth if they are willing to commit the time to it. Another universal fact, in my opinion, is that creating and growing net worth is based on time perhaps more than any other factor. I have virtually never seen anyone have a net worth that has not worked for it and spent time cultivating it. Those that have, either through an inheritance or a lottery win, generally have thrown away their wealth within 5 years because they have not built up the foundation for the funds they received.

One of the best rules of success, I feel, is something I learned from Napoleon Hill’s Think and Grow Rich. The principle is simple – Do what you do as well as you can, never worry about the money, and the money will come. It seems odd to some, but in my life I would say it has always worked. If you are not doing your best, you will never be paid as well and thus you will never have enough money or wealth for what you want. If you use your energy and time worrying about the bills or what is in your pocket, you have none left to generate the funds you need or want. Of course that is not to say that you don’t have a plan for your money, just not an obsession about that plan.

More directly I would generalize that for those looking to enter the stock market there are a couple of things you should do. Read the Wall Street Journal (or similar daily economic newspaper of high regard) for a year, ask for and read several (a dozen or more) mutual fund prospectuses, and get a stock broker you are comfortable with. While all that is happening, set a budget that takes 5-10% of your discretionary income (at least, more if it’s affordable) and set it aside in a separate savings account.

Now I say read the Journal because there is a terminology used in investing that is not used anywhere else. One of the biggest hurdles I hear is that people are unfamiliar with the terms used and thus are unnerved by investing. In reading the Journal daily you get a familiarity in learning those terms. (Don’t be embarrassed to have a dictionary at hand to define difficult terms, I did it and so have many – whether they admitted they started like this or not) In addition it will help you get a feel of the market and the cycle that occurs.

I recall that when I was a new stockbroker, I had a gentleman ask me if I had spent a cycle in the market. I had no idea what he meant, to which he laughed. He meant that I had been a broker for a year at least, and had seen the overall cycle of earnings reports, forecasts, reactions and other events moving the market.

Understanding the timing of the market is as important as understanding the terminology. You don’t want to buy stocks in the short-term to start with, but if you know that say the travel industry in the U.S. is weaker in the spring than say the fall or winter, you may get a better purchase price to start with. Another thing the reading will provide is the reactions that the market has to events. Whether it is a disaster, political unrest, missed earnings, or an unforeseen event companies have immediate reactions. While each reaction is individual it helps to know that missed earnings can lead to a drop in stock price for a short while, but does not mean that company is a bad investment long-term. A disaster could hit the market, but not affect long-term returns. And when a company is in trouble you can learn some of that wording as well. It’s not fool-proof, but it will help you sleep at night while others panic over something that could be minor. Trust me that I have seen this.

As you get familiar with the general market cycle and terminology read the mutual fund prospectuses. This will tell you about the goals of the mutual fund, the historical returns, the administrator of the fund, and the stocks that are – or can be – in the fund.

There are big differences in mutual funds. Some only buy bonds, some only large corporation stocks, or just banks, or just eco-friendly companies and so on. Some only look to preserve your money, some seek to grow at all costs, others are more balanced. There are funds that can buy penny stocks – considered the most speculative equity investment – others buy junk bonds – the most speculative debt investment – and some can use options – highly leveraged investments. There are funds that started on a great year for market returns (like during a market bubble) and therefore have great historical returns, improving the performance in bad years in their average, and others have been around for decades showing a more realistic return over time. Some advisors are hotshots taking huge fees for their names, others are unknowns starting out, and many are just working hard. All of this is important, to varying degrees on how well you can sleep at night and what performance you wish to have.

The last step is to get a broker. After spending time learning the terminology of Wall Street, and the reactions, and mutual funds that you are comfortable with, you now have a means to evaluate what kind of broker you want. Some are newbie’s and desperate to show performance and take risk. Some are seasoned pro’s but with huge numbers of clients. Some like to spend time talking to clients, some don’t. Some are better with a specific area in the market, like banking or biotech. What you are comfortable with will help reach your long-term goals.

And I believe a broker is necessary. The market is a constant, changing, gut-driven industry. A good broker can hear the unspoken words in an earnings report and be cautious, or have an eye for something the market will want in the future. They aren’t always right and it does cost money, but this is what they do everyday all day. It’s not a 9-5 job, and not everyone can do it. In my experience a broker may be wrong 40% of the time, but investors on their own tend to be wrong 70% or more of the time. And when you compare wins, investors on their own just don’t match up. But that is what I have seen with a good broker, which only you can decide for your self.

And I do emphasize starting to grow your wealth with mutual funds. The risk is lower and cost to invest is as well. It’s easier to add to a mutual fund position, and cost effective. The fee to a broker is not prohibitive, in my opinion. And it allows you time to see results and plan for future growth. You may not agree, but it’s one way to create a net worth and grow it.

Now this is just one suggestion for growing your worth. In the future I will mention others. They are all based on my experiences and those of friends and family. There is no guarantee they will be the key for you. I always advise speaking with a trusted professional in the field I speak about.

Hopefully this is the first step in helping you attain the worth you desire and deserve. If you have more suggestions or experiences to share, please comment. But always do what you do best; I believe that if you do that the money will come.

Labels: investment, mutual fund, Napoleon Hill, penny stocks, personal net worth, political unrest, savings account, stock market, stockbroker, Think and Grow Rich, Wall Street, Wall Street Journal

Continued from Jim Cramer gets upset with reason Part 1...

It’s a real gloom outlook. Like dominoes falling the effects move from the financial sector to every other industry. Once it starts there is really nothing that can be done. This is why so many would tell Mr. Cramer they are afraid. This is why he would demand that the Fed ease rates. It’s not a recession they fear, it’s a depression. It wouldn’t be 1929, but a depression all the same. Economically it’s just part of the cycle, emotionally and in terms of real people it’s quite another.

Most average people are unfamiliar with the terms being discussed by most analysts. Many see Mr. Cramer flipping out and they don’t get it. Such are the markets.

It’s not worth pulling everything out of the market in a panic, to me. It is worth evaluating and planning your investments around. A good plan takes into account that these things may happen and provides shelter for the storm. Just as the markets rebounded from the 2000-1 drop, the up-coming drop will also be survivable. But don’t doubt it will hurt a lot.

Since 2003 the market has gone from around 8000 to 14000, a total of roughly 75% overall or about 19% per year. That is very strong growth. The 7% drop from 14,000 to 13,000 is not enough to balance the growth. I’d expect a drop to 11,000 before things settle out. And at the same time there will be far less credit available. Already that has gotten tougher as Mr. Cramer mentioned. It will get worse.

These are things I expect. I could be completely wrong, and that would be a great thing. How any one person should prepare for this potential problem is a conversation that I cannot have. I would suggest having the conversations with your professionals though, and re-evaluating the potential costs of a mortgage. Preparation is the key.

**Mr. Vass is no-longer a stockbroker, and is not providing any financial advice. The above is an expression of the thoughts of Mr. Vass and do not make or imply a solicitation. Investments of any nature are complicated and highly individualized; it is recommended that any financial advice be sought from licensed professionals. **

Labels: Jim Cramer, mortgage rates, stock market, stockbroker

So I was checking out a few things when I ran into this conversation by Mr. Jim Cramer. Actually I can’t really call it a conversation. It’s Mr. Cramer going off about his concerns. This is perhaps the most passionate I have ever heard him be. And I understand exactly why.

I’ve mentioned before that I am a former stockbroker. I’ve had years of experience and have spoken or listened to maybe hundreds of analysts and CEOs. I’ve come to understand the relationship between the markets, data, investor impressions and institutions both domestic and international. Given this I have a bit of understanding of Mr. Cramer’s words that some I’ve read do not. He may be blustering and a bit of a showboat, but he is no idiot.

Here is the actual footage –


The fact is that if you are an investor in the market, you should be concerned as well. Things are not going well and they will probably get worse. For all the naysaying of many democrats (and a couple of Presidential candidates) the economy has been doing well. That has a lot to do with the low interest rates and the boom that has persisted in the housing market. Couple that with investor impressions and you get most of what the market has been for a while now. But interest rates are on the rise and the evil some men do is coming to term.

When I say evil I mean the vultures that sought out the uninformed and ill-advised that were convinced to take on high-risk variable rate mortgages. Whether they are White or Black, most were less educated in the ways of markets and were not prepared for what would happen if rates increased. I don’t know how many people took advantage of the low rates being offered to take second-mortgages to cover rising healthcare costs or to keep up with the Jones’ and get new cars or some other such. How many ads are still being shown on TV advertising the homes that can be bought for as little as $1000 if you just call a 1-800 number for details.

For whatever the reasons, I estimate that the last 5 years has caused more people than are being estimated now to take on a home. I would say 10-20% of them were older people that took on risky second mortgages and 10-20% were mislead about the eventual cost of a first mortgage. I guess it could mean a total of about 10 million are in danger of defaulting on their loans.

If so many were to do so, banks and financial institutions would take significant losses. Profits would shrink as they are used to cover the defaults. Credit would tighten, causing some small businesses to fold, middle level companies to stagnate and fire employees and large corporations to increase prices. Unemployment goes up and the GDP of the nation drops.

Continued in Part 2...

Labels: Jim Cramer, mortgage rates, stock market, stockbroker

Just something I wanted to pause and think about. Today the Dow Jones broke past 12,000 which is a new intra-day high. Big cheers, the market must be doing well and it must mean that everyone is making money in their 401 k and mutual funds. Well I’m sure that is what the big six and a few others would like you to think. I think its just stupid, all the hype about this. [The big six are the leading, well-known brokerage houses. This includes Merrill, Lehman and the others, all of which I dislike.]

Why am I not interested in the hype? Why don’t I think that most people are making money today and that this new high has yet to impact Joe Average? Because during the week of January 10, 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 11908.5 and then continued to trend down to a low of 7422.27 on September 30, 2002. It’s taken the better part of a decade to reach a new high. That is significant. It means that many are just getting back to even.

Let me clarify what I’m thinking. I was a broker for many years (I left the industry, without ever being involved in a lawsuit, in 2001 for family reasons). Like all brokers I realize that the average investor does not know what they are doing. Average investors buy high, sell low, miss opportunities, and follow bandwagons on a regular basis. I have watched as former clients bought internet stocks, against my advice, because they were being bought and creating new highs – without being able to explain what the company did, and often with a company that had no history as it was a new IPO. For a while they made money, and then got killed. I’ve seen the same thing happen in biotechs, and various other industries. It wasn’t just the bubble that took down investors.

[For the record I did advise in one internet stock, AOL, and I did lose money during the downturn. But I did try to minimize losses and advised several 5 year plans to weather the crash, some were followed others not. I was not a genius for the market, but I was no fool either.]

Because so many were crushed in the crash, bad decisions were made. Most sold to make margin calls or just bailed out. Others never took the chance to buy when things were low. I recall the battles I had with multiple clients as the market opened after 9/11 and dropped to a low of 7926.93. Fear prevented a chance to regain funds lost from the bubble burst, primarily while others were frozen due to lack of capital. Many just had to hold on and wait for things to improve.

So if like many you owned GE Around Oct 2, 2000 (59.94) instead of around Feb 10, 2003 (21.30) today you would be down 24.38 (close was 35.56) or 40%. Maybe some liked Pharmaceuticals like Phfizer which was 48.13 around June 12, 2000 reached a low of 20.57 around Dec 5, 2005 and closed today at 28.10 for a grand return of a loss of 20.03 or 42% down. Maybe smaller companies were of interest like NITE which traded at 59.43 around March 20, 2000 dropped to 4 around Sept 30, 2002 and today had a close of 19.45 for a loss of 39.98 or 67%. Even if you like a story stock like SIRI you may have paid 69.44 around Feb 28, 2000 and not the .38 in the week of March 10, 2003 with a close today of 3.90 for a loss of 65.54 or 94%. [I did advise on positions with SIRI, NITE, GE, PFE, LEH and many other stocks. Former clients may have owned these stocks long term and had higher or lower cost averages than what is discussed.]

For those that could afford to buy-in and average down, life may be good. Most investors don’t though, whatever the reason. So the reality is that many are down today, or even, and the highs bring them no joy. The hype is just that. Many corporations are in similar situations too. It just annoys me to hear the talking heads on various programs trying to get people happy when the news isn’t really great. Or ads on television saying that people should go and invest on their own when they don’t understand what is involved. I find it irresponsible.

The economy is better, things have improved. Barring events like 9/11, or Enron, the markets will continue to grow. But hype will never help mom & pop investors. It does help some institutions though, like LEH which was 15.68 around Feb 14, 2000 and continued HIGHER to 78.70 on Oct 16, 2006.

Just keep this stuff in mind as you watch the talking heads spout how great things are in the market. Or you see that ad saying that you should invest on your own.

This is what I think, what do you think?

Labels: Dow Jones Index, GE, LEH, NITE, PFE, SIRI, stock market, stockbroker