Let’s assume that the price of gasoline has been rising every year for the past 6 years. Let’s say that you live in a major metropolitan city. Let’s say that the number of obese people in your nation has grown almost as much as the waistlines. What do you do?

In America you blame the other political party, offer a tax break or threaten to tax the oil companies (depending on your party affiliation), mandate an alternative fuel source that drives up the price of food and that 98% of the population can’t use, and then sit back as unprecedented numbers of people go out and buy scooters or motorcycles. In America its drive or die you know.

But if you happen to be in England, well then it’s another story completely.

In a nation where gas gulping Hummers never took hold the obvious choice was to ride a bicycle. And that is something they have been doing in droves.

Since 2000 there has been an increase of 90% in the number of cyclists hitting the roads. In fact the government there has just created a ~$250 million incentive package for 12 cities, including Bristol, to become modern cycling cities. Not that does not match up much against the ~$10 billion spent on transportation in London alone (of which approx $110 million will be going to cycling) but it’s an impressive number.

Considering the huge numbers of eco-fanatical people in America concerned about green house gases and global warming, the food police demanding that every meal be an organic mix of veggies and nuts, and the ping pong battle over drilling for domestic oil anywhere I have to admit I’m shocked that not even San Francisco has made similar moves if not to lead the world with cycling.

Cycling is not just the sport of France, or an event in the Olympics. It’s a real solution to rising oil prices, obesity, and global health. No matter how the politicians spin the polispeak the fact is that there is something that can be done, and England is doing it.

Labels: alternative fuel, Bristol, cycling, England, France, global health, global warming, London, obesity, oil prices, Olympics, Polispeak, San Francisco, tax break

Over the years that I spent as a stockbroker I learned that you should never get so tunnel-visioned as to only see one aspect of a market. I’ve known many brokers that solely focused on technology, or banks, and so on. When their sector was in trouble, they and their clients had little safe haven until the market turned. Few things are as troubling as being over-weighted in a sector the market hates.

Conversely I have known brokers that were able to see opportunities driving down the L.I.E. (Long Island Expressway) – he noted that over a couple of months a bank with little exposure in the northeast was suddenly increasing it’s advertising and deduced they were poised to start making mergers and enter that market and was right. I have even seen brokers look at an industry and see the future potential. Such as with breakthroughs with various drugs, or the growth of the internet back in the early days of AOL.

I even saw the potential of satellite radio back when Sirius Radio (then called CD Radio) first got its FCC license for the frequency they use. [I did not get the pricing exactly correct at various points in the time I recommended that stock, I have to be honest.]

So in that vain of thought I occasionally watch what is happening across the pond and the globe, even though I am no longer a broker. And I am noticing that over in London there is an interesting wave of commonality that is unusual to me.

Lately there have been a lot of similarity in the British and American markets, which is beyond the usual trend. Of course there are many reasons for this. The similarity in our systems of government, the shared culture and past. The good will between the nations and the numerous multi-national companies that we share.

Now with all this said I have to wonder what this synchronism of market activity will mean when weighed against the advance of the Euro and the European Union? Will the effects of higher oil prices, and lower levels of alternative fuel sources trigger an adverse effect on London, and thus New York? Will the ripple effect of high transportations costs for British and American goods hasten the decline of the Dollar and Pound? And if this is correct, how long before such an effect is seen in London and then Wall Street?

So I suggest that for those looking for the next phase of this current market cycle here in the U.S. the place to look may not be in the American markets. Look across the pond to our cultural cousins and look at the big picture. Who knows what you might glimpse.

Labels: European Union, London, New York, satellite radio, Sirius Radio, stockbroker, Wall Street