So the results are in for the Ohio 12th Congressional race and the Republican Balderson has won. The year-long hype of a Blue Wave has failed. Even with the help of Antifa violence, Rep. Maxine Waters calls to attack private citizens living their lives, the shift to Communism/Socialism with candidate Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, the money of Rep. Pelosi’s House Majority PAC, and the backroom deals of Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi.
In the days leading up to this vote, where polling was indicating a win for challenger Danny O’Connor, pundits proposed that the OH-12 race was a predictor of the 2018 mid-term elections. In addition they claimed that this race was a statement on the policies of the Trump Administration. If these predictions and models are correct, then Republicans may win the House and Senate in the mid-terms. Further, if these predictions are correct, it indicates that at least half the nation (based on current unofficial vote tally) continues to support the President, the improved economy, and the international efforts to increase peace.
But what does this mean for the NY-22 race?
For over a year, there has been a claim of a Blue Wave that would turn races like the OH-12 over to Democrats. According to Real Clear Politics the average generic ballot polling shows a 6.9 point lean to Democrats. But elections are never generic. Outside spending, endorsements, the economy, hot-button issues (like socialism, single payer healthcare, the 2nd Amendment and more), and of course the candidates themselves guarantee that generic ballot polls are useless outside of the 24/7 news cycle.
The House Majority PAC considers this race the 2nd most important in the nation – based on its spending. Thus far, the NY-22 race is the 2nd highest spending of that PAC, with $583,000 spent since March. To compare with the OH-12, the House Majority PAC has only spent less than one-tenth as much, for a total of $44,970.
Besides the difference in outside spending, the OH-12 and the NY-22 are quite similar. The OH-12 has roughly 30,000 more constituents. The breakdown of men to women are almost exactly the same (NY-22: 50.5% Female/49.5% Male; OH-12: 50.7% Female/49.3% Male). The racial breakdowns are also similar, with OH-12 being: 89.2% White, 4.6% Black, 3.0% Asian, 2.0% Hispanic; and the NY-22 being: 90.9% White, 3.4% Black, 3.2% Hispanic, 2.3% Asian.
Economically, Ohio is better off than the New York according to the 2017 Forbes ranking of best States for business (#14 vs #29). The July 2018 ranking by WalletHub of the best States to start a business rank the 2 states closer, with New York (#32) higher than Ohio (#38) overall – though New York is #49 in business costs. According to Census data, the Ohio 12th Congressional District is better in terms of per capita income (higher by $9,714), median income(higher by $14,448), and poverty rate (lower by 5.4%) than the New York 22nd Congressional District.
In terms of the issues, Danny O’Connor promoted healthcare – though he opposed single payer.
“I haven’t seen a [single-payer] proposal that’s gonna move the needle, whether it’s budgetarily or coverage-wise,” he said. “I think voters here are more focused on protecting their access now, not the political jargon and all these catchphrases that have been poll-tested and are proposed by people in Washington, DC — which is what that is.”
He opposes the now popular trend of socialism in the Democrat Party. He also was against tuition-free college and touted his F rating with the NRA. But he did agree with the trend of Democrat candidates distancing himself from Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
Anthony Brindisi, in comparison, voted for single payer healthcare in NY State (Bill A04738). In reference to the 2nd Amendment, Brindisi touts his NRA rating, which he says was due to his vote against the NY SAFE Act. But he attributes his vote to a desire for a more restrictive gun control Bill. He also voted in favor of 2 Red Flag Bills (Bills A11148, A08976).
“Brindisi responded to the question by saying that one of the biggest reasons he received the favorable NRA rating was his vote against the SAFE Act, which he attributed to the lack of time he had to read the bill. He said that the typical requirement to read bills before voting on them was three days, and he said Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D., N.Y.) waived that and allowed him only about three hours to digest the bill.
He also said he wanted a law more robust than the SAFE Act.”
Brindisi has declined to state if he would support tax increases proposed by Rep. Nancy Pelosi, but did tell M V Consulting president Michael Vass that he felt the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went too far. He has public stated that the Federal reduction in personal and corporate taxes (which have been attributed to reducing unemployment nationwide) would increase local taxes. In 2018, Anthony Brindisi, who represents the NY-119 Assembly District, voted for increases in taxes and spending that Assemblyman Joseph Errigo states,
“The budget agreed on today is a shameful disservice to the millions of New Yorkers who have had enough of the increased taxes and spending from the state legislature. The total tab for the 2018 budget comes in at over 170 billion dollars, a figure that eclipses the GDP of countries such as Hungary and Luxembourg… Sadly I’m disappointed in those who put this budget forward and voted in favor of it – New York deserves better.”
Brindisi has also stated he would not support Rep. Nancy Pelosi. But he has accepted $14,000 in donations from her, as well as the aforementioned House Majority PAC. As for support of the recent move to socialism, Brindisi started his congressional campaign in Binghamton, NY with a private speech to Citizen Action in 2017.
Thus, does this equate to a Blue Wave? Is this the OH-12 all over again in the NY-22?
Given the variables of on-going corruption trials, the influence of Democrat Socialists Cynthia Nixon and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the potential of the on-going Utica Hospital email scandal, the US & NY State economies, and international policy the similarities of OH-12 and NY-22 are substantial. The Democrat candidates, and the issues they support, are notably similar as well. If anything, the major difference is the fact that Brindisi has a voting record for his time as a NY Assemblyman. While this can be a positive for the farther left factions of his Party, constituents that are Republicans, Conservatives, property owners and the middle class (the largest proportion of New Yorkers exiting the State) may not take as warmly to his record.
If the predictions of the result of the OH-12 vote are accurate, there is little that indicates the NY-22 will have a different result. In summation, the NY-22 is currently considered by some as a toss-up race. Given all factors, we would expect a close race with a win for Republicans.