Super Tuesday prediction

By Michael Vass | February 29, 2012

On February 14, 2012 we looked closely at the Republican delegate count, the surge of interest in Rick Santorum, and what might be the results on Super Tuesday. In that article, we made assumptions about the results from the primaries for February 28th.

Now its time to update.

We said that Rick Santorum would win in Michigan. It was something that at the time seemed to be quite assured. Though we did not expect that a second place finish for Mitt Romney would end his likelihood to lead in the delegate race.

This has proven to be incorrect, with Romney narrowly winning the popular vote by 3% (41.1% vs 37.9% for Santorum). The delegates split was 9 for Romney, 7 for Santorum.

The other race of the day was Arizona. We correctly assumed that Mitt Romney would win that State Primary. Arizona is a winner take all primary, and therefore Romney gains 29 delegates from there.

The total is now at:

Mitt Romney – 137
Rick Santorum – 54
Newt Gingrich – 32
Ron Paul – 20

We further predicted on Feb. 14th that the results of Super Tuesday would be as follows (with a +/- window of 4%)

Romney should gain approx 143 delegates, followed by Santorum with 122, Gingrich with 96, and Rep. Paul with 61.

We believe that based on the fact that all the races are proportional or hybrid, our figures remain in the correct proportions. We still see little change, even with the gain of momentum for Mitt Romney that unquestionably will come from the wins today. This momentum is even more reason to maintain our prediction that Romney will win Washington State – though that race is non-binding.

Thus we predict that on March 7th the Republican delegate count will be approximately (including the Washington non-binding delegate count):

Mitt Romney – 302
Rick Santorum – 184
Newt Gingrich – 133
Ron Paul – 89

So far we have been 50/50 in our prediction. We look forward to Super Tuesday and comparing our predictions with that of other pundits and the reality of the voters.

Rating 3.00 out of 5

3 Responses to “Super Tuesday prediction”

  1. shell Says:
    February 29th, 2012 at 10:36 am

    50/50 is about what anybody could predict. This makes you expert at this? Duh?

  2. Michael Vass Says:
    February 29th, 2012 at 3:20 pm

    Shell,

    When did we say we were “expert” forcasters? We provide political news and commentary, with our expectations for Super Tuesday being well defined and provided. Expert predictions are for horoscopes, educated and defined expectations on politics and there outcomes is what we do, and we believe we do so well.

    If we are wrong, we admit it. But at least we have provided, well in advance, our expectations. But if you want an exact prediction on political outcomes, or anything else, you aren’t looking for what we do. Just review the site and what we are experts at is apparent.

  3. After Super Tuesday – Republican delegate counts | VASS political blog Says:
    March 7th, 2012 at 4:52 am

    [...] This brings his total of delegates to 354. This exceeds our predictions from Feb 14th and Feb 29th. The delegate count we had stated was 302, assuming wins in 4 States and 2nd place finishes [...]

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