On February 14, 2012 we looked closely at the Republican delegate count, the surge of interest in Rick Santorum, and what might be the results on Super Tuesday. In that article, we made assumptions about the results from the primaries for February 28th.
Now its time to update.
We said that Rick Santorum would win in Michigan. It was something that at the time seemed to be quite assured. Though we did not expect that a second place finish for Mitt Romney would end his likelihood to lead in the delegate race.
This has proven to be incorrect, with Romney narrowly winning the popular vote by 3% (41.1% vs 37.9% for Santorum). The delegates split was 9 for Romney, 7 for Santorum.
The other race of the day was Arizona. We correctly assumed that Mitt Romney would win that State Primary. Arizona is a winner take all primary, and therefore Romney gains 29 delegates from there.
The total is now at:
Mitt Romney – 137
Rick Santorum – 54
Newt Gingrich – 32
Ron Paul – 20
We further predicted on Feb. 14th that the results of Super Tuesday would be as follows (with a +/- window of 4%)
Romney should gain approx 143 delegates, followed by Santorum with 122, Gingrich with 96, and Rep. Paul with 61.
We believe that based on the fact that all the races are proportional or hybrid, our figures remain in the correct proportions. We still see little change, even with the gain of momentum for Mitt Romney that unquestionably will come from the wins today. This momentum is even more reason to maintain our prediction that Romney will win Washington State – though that race is non-binding.
Thus we predict that on March 7th the Republican delegate count will be approximately (including the Washington non-binding delegate count):
Mitt Romney – 302
Rick Santorum – 184
Newt Gingrich – 133
Ron Paul – 89
So far we have been 50/50 in our prediction. We look forward to Super Tuesday and comparing our predictions with that of other pundits and the reality of the voters.