What we can expect from Health Care Reform
Taking a moment to step back from the political philosophies that are in favor or opposed to the Health Care Reform Bill that is currently being moved through Congress, what is it we can envision if it becomes reality?
It’s a hard question. There is no absolute answer that can be formulated. But if we look at other Obama Administration policies that have been enacted we can get an idea of what might be part of the results.
Let’s start with the Obama Stimulus. Initially priced at $787 billion, it was proposed to save the American economy from an impending imminent collapse. The fear at the time was that the unemployment rate would escalate to 8.5%, which would signal a depression greater than in the 1930’s. The public was assured that after passage several things would happen:
Over a year later we now have the reality of the Obama Stimulus. Unemployment has reached as high as 10%, and currently sits at 9.7%. Underemployment for the nation is 19.7%. Economists for the President admit that it is possible for unemployment to rise again this year, and at best the year will end with unemployment at 9.5%.
So far the majority, roughly 70% or more, of all jobs created by the Stimulus are Government jobs. Many of the private sector jobs have been temporary, with those employed returning to unemployment within the year.
The accountability initially was proven by multiple news organizations to be flawed. Within the first weeks of the reports of the government and recovery.org, discrepancies as high as 18% in some States were identified. Continued refinements in the figures resulted in additional discoveries of further errors including the math the government used to calculate a created job (which included a portion of any job that received a pay increase), the allocation of millions to non-existant State districts and organizations, and the disappearance of hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of dollars.
Though it was a campaign promise, and given the subjective nature of earmarks, thousands of earmarks were included in the Obama Stimulus. Those earmarks went to both Parties.
To date the number of jobs created is massively in dispute, even within the Obama Administration alone. Estimates range from 600,000 to 2 million jobs. Various members of the Obama Administration have been quoted as stating anywhere from hundreds of thousands to millions of jobs created. Also the Administration has fluctuated on how much of a further impact the Stimulus will have going forward. Ultimately, the one fact that is without question is that 4 million Americans lost their jobs in 2009, nearly doubling the number of unemployed.
In addition, several unaccounted problems occured due to the speed in which the Obama Stimulus was passed. One of those was the prevention of families to continue to receive food stamps and welfare. While exact national figures are unknown, the AP reported at least $38 million in food stamps being denied families in 2009.
Lastly, the cost of the Obama Stimulus inceased by $75 billion in the first year alone. Thus the total cost is $862 billion, with expectations for further cost overruns in each of the following 3 years. This also has the effect of increasing the national deficit in excess than the interest rate on the short-term, and exponentially over they long-term.
Going in a seperate direction is the Making Home Affordable Program. The cost was $75 billion dollars, and it was stated to provide homeowners facing mortgage an alternative by which to keep their homes. It’s target were 4 million homeowners in delinquency and potentially or actually facing foreclosure. It was estimated that this program would be able to affect 75% of those that applied.
To date 180,000 people have been helped by this program. An additional 350,000 people are in the trial program, with many of them expected to lose their homes to foreclosure. The net effective rate, for those that qualified under the restrictions of the program, is currently around 33%.
Throughout 2009 the number of home mortgages that were in delinquency broke 28 year record highs. The numbers continue to increase in 2010. For all of 2009, 2.8 million homes were foreclosd on according to RealtyTrac. The expectation for 2010 is a loss to foreclosure of 3 million additional homes. Currently 11 million homeowners (roughly 25% of all homeowners) have a home with a mortgage that exceeds the value of the property.
Without going any further we can extrapolate several thoughts to the Health Care Reform if passed in the current form.
None of the above accounts for political manipulations, further changes in this legislation, the economy, and/or any other legislation enacted now or in the future. Again, this is not factual but based on the most likely outcomes based on current Obama Administration programs and proposals. If we were to factor in historical outcomes of similar programs, like Medicare or Social Security, many of the likely outcomes increase in cost, problems, and severity.
Given the likely results of passage of the Health Care Reform, it become clear why the public opinion of this Bill is and has been so low. What is not clear is why politicians continue to promote the Bill in opposition to their voting constituents.
