Early 2010 mid-term election outlook

By Michael Vass | February 9, 2010

Here is a quick overview of what the landscape looks like for the mid-term elections this November.

Not the best picture for Democrats. Though this is only just the Senate side of the picture. In the House things are bad as well, but not as horrendously so.

Focusing on the New York race, the big question is how will Senator Kirsten Gillibrand fare. So far the main competition on the Democrat ticket is former Congressman Harold Ford Jr. But Ford has a way to go to gain positive traction with the State. Recent Rassmuesen polls, from Jan 20th, show a decisive lead for Sen. Gillibrand, 48% – 25%.

Ford is not considered a New Yorker, is well associated with Tennesse (where he was a Congressman), and is a Manhattan investment banker. Given the current climate from the White House against the investment industry (a critical industry for the revenues of the State) Ford is at an obvious disadvantage. On the positiveside of things, Ford is Black, relatively young, and has massive name recognition that will be a critical factor once any adds are placed on television.

I have already covered many aspects of Senator Gillibrand and her voting record. Beyond that the major advantage she has is that she is an incumbent (though not an elected one). Major detractions include a lack of visibility across the State, a lack of recoginition, and several factors I have covered previously.

The real problem facing Sen. Gillibrand, and by extension Democrat leadership, is when Gillibrand is paired against anything else. To be exact, an unknown generic Republican candidate. In polling reported on the same day as the above Democrat – Democrat race, Sen. Gillibrand was paired to the unknown. The data was anything but a positive sign.

“Thirty-nine percent (39%) of likely voters favor incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, while 34% opt for an unnamed generic Republican candidate. Ten percent (10%) favor former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr., now a Manhattan investment banker. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.”

Further complicating the issue are the results from likely Republican voters (which would generally be everywhere outside of New York City).

“Giuliani led Gillibrand by 13 points at that time – 53% to 40%. Against Pataki, Gillibrand came out barely ahead, 45% to 42%, nearly identical to findings two months earlier. “

Factors that are seen influencing the New York Senate Race include:

  • Only six percent (6%) of New York voters describe the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Forty-eight percent (48%) rate it as poor.
  • Just nine percent (9%) percent of New York voters have a very favorable opinion of Gillibrand, while nearly twice as many (17%) view her very unfavorably. Fourteen percent (14%) have no opinion of the incumbent.

    Given the above numbers and the observations of most pundits including Dick Morris

    ...So don’t count out...any possible candidate against Oregon’s Ron Wyden and New York’s Chuck Schumer."

    It looks as if New York State may very well change from the Democrat dominance of New York City to more accurately reflect the rest of the State.

    Rating 4.00 out of 5

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