What the Super Bowl ads forecast
Obviously the Super Bowl commercials reflect the economy. There is no question that when things are well, there is no end to the number of companies willing to pay the huge fee ($2.5 million this year) to be seen. Not only do companiues spend money for their 30-second slots, but they go to great lengths to ensure that they directly target their audience and entertain them as well.
But the economy is not good. It hasn’t been for quite some time, and the prospects (even with all the promises of President Obama taken into account) for it to be better is about as likely as winning the lottery for $100 million 3 times in a row.
The ads in the Super Bowl this year just reflected the mood out there. There was reluctance for many companies to take an ad. Some of the usual advertisers opted out. Bud and Bud Lite cut back the number of ads. And a few of the ads were about as innovative as jamming a thumbtack into your… you get the point.
It wasn’t just that there were ads by a pro-life organization (which was so bland no one paid any attention to it in the group of people I saw it with) and other organizations that you would never expect to have an ad. It’s that more than half the ads were of a quality akin to a high school effort as opposed to 5th Avenue.
There were so many commercials featuring men in boxer shorts, that several of the women watching had to crack jokes about the subject (and the ads). There were more chickens onscreen than in an episode of the Muppet Show. The Dove soap commercial was a muddled mess of mismarketing. The Audi “green” ad was more of a mockery of the new fad of being green or else than anything – except they weren’t trying to be mocking.
The conclusion seems to be that in the past year companies shed some of the most costly individuals they had employed. Sadly that also means the most experienced, informed, creative, and capable people were the most well-paid; who whould have imagined that. Because if anyone with a brain was around they never would have made, or authorized for the Super Bowl, the following ads.
I think the point is made.
The fact is that the depletion of brain power at the top levels of many companies is leading to incredibly poor business decisions. An effect that will ripple long after the Super Bowl has passed. I would not be shocked to see the stock prices of the above companies fall, and to hear that they miss quarterly earnings expectations.
But another factor that I think is important is the fact that the Government is getting involved in the private sector once again. The Government spent $2.5 million of your tax dollars to do the following:
That was informative. It made me just want to go out and do something with the census. It was star-studded and engaging. Money truely well spent. And there will only be another several hundred dozen other ads ALL year long to remind us of the census, so you know that this was a very timely thing to do.
Looking at the Super Bowl ads from a business perspective I get one clear message. No one knows what to do, and the few that are willing to throw some money around are completely overwhelmed.
You have companies trying to cash in on fads (Audi and the “green” thing”) that they neither understand nor care about. You have companies tossing around products to new markets they never understood (Dove). You have companies that are trying anything to maintain their customer based and price-points (Sketchers). All the while the Government is burning money on ideas that probably sounded great in a classroom somewhere.
2010 will not be a good financial year for business or individuals. Companies are lost, unsure of their footing in an environment that opposes them for doing what they are in business for. Do you spend money on advertising? If you do how do you cut coners to make it somewhat less costly? How do you make it so that consumers don’t feel angry you have the money to advertise? Will you be taxed for advertising in a big event, like everything else you are getting taxed for?
Meanwhile the Government is busy spending money as if tax revenues were increasing instead of decreasing. Tossing money away on a television commercial is nothing, when you can balance a budget and have the money. But doing so when you are in debt to everyone is not quite sound business.
If we can draw anything from the Super Bowl commercials as a forecast for the future it may be this – the hard times are not over. Cutting costs has cut quality. It is a mad dash at extreme ideas with the hope of some positive outlook. It is grasping at straws while the smart money sits back and conserves their reserves until they can get an opportunity.
Jobs will not improve until the major companies are sure they can make a profit at the end of the day. The Government is sure to continue to spend like an addict looking for a fix, because they don’t know how to do anything else. Taxes will go up because there is nothing stopping it.
If you thought the Super Bowl commercials were less than impressive, wait till you see your investment returns at the end of the year. Unless a hail-mary gets thrown sometime soon. But don’t count on it.
