The new old Obama
With the State of the Union address just some 50 hours away, President Obama is busy letting the American public know that he is focused on the issue everyone is concerned about – jobs. It is the focus of the State of the Union, it is the subject that is reflected in the new taxes on banks and reforms being talked about for Wall Street. Creating jobs is job number one.
Does this sound familiar?
The comments are very much in line with the comments made by President Obama during the 2008 election campaign. It was a time when 515 promises were made to the public in exchange for their votes. Since that time few of the promises have come true, or even been addressed, and the image of President Obama as a moderates and centrist have gone the way of the balanced budget.
The question that many will be asking before and after the State of the Union is if this time the comments will be any more accurate than previously. It is a legitimate question in the face of a recent past where such comments were mere polispeak designed to ensure a vote as opposed to an actual policy. Considering the fact that the only reason for this new direction is the loss of the Democrat supermajority in Congress makes it even more questionable.
What is clear is that the White House recognizes that the mid-term elections will be a battlefield for Democrats. The likely outcome at this early point is that a huge seachange will take place. Which would ensure that any policy measure the Obama Administration would like to pass has little chance of happening.
By striking a more populist and centrist tone, the White House is trying to cushion Democrats up for re-election. It hopes to give them some breathing room and thus regain traction with voters in critical States. But this new policy direction still has it’s flaws.
The Health Care Reform still lingers in the background. While the election of Sen. Scott Brown signals the end of another pure partisan vote, it does not guarantee the end of the Bill. President Obama has already made it clear that he still wants to pass this Bill as much of his political credibility rides on it’s outcome. Democrat leaders Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Harry Reid are flustered to respond to this push in the face of the loss of the supermajority and the prospect of massive defections by re-election minded peers.
The Cap & Trade Bill is another Obama Administration gem that has not gone away. The fact it has gotten far less attention from the major media is only due to the emphasis on Health Care. Then there is the spending. Lots of spending.
So far the Obama Administration has directly spent, or planned to spend, more money than if spending 1,000,000 a day since the start of the calendar. His proposal last year to fix the unemployment crisis was to spend $787 billion in the Obama Stimulus. The net effect was to increase unemployment 2% (a loss of 3 million jobs). Continued spending from the Obama Stimulus will reduce unemployment to 9%, after spiking to between 10.5% – 11.5%, according to economist estimates. Thus the net effect, if analysts are more accurate this year than last, is spending $400+ billion dollars to net lose roughly 2.5 million jobs. The State of the Union will propose spending even more money on the same type of initiatives.
A less optimistic point of view would be that this new focus on jobs is nothing more than polispeak to maintain power. That throwing good money after bad is not centrist or a focus on jobs but a political ad. That continuing to strive to pass a wholly unwanted and unpopular Health Care Reform Bill (that does not accomplish the goal it was created for) while speaking about jobs is akin to a smoke and mirrors act. That again striking the image of a moderate in the face of active and persistent far-left political ambitions is the equivalent of a bait-and-switch if not grandstanding.
In total the “new” direction of President Obama, to be exemplified in the State of the Union Address on Wednesday, is nothing more than the “old” Obama of the 2008 election. Until concrete efforts, that have more than disputed and marginal effects, coallese Democrats and the Obama Administration will continue to suffer the stings of a public that is angry and untrusting.
